Global macro overview for 14/03/2016:
In the regional elections taken place last Sunday the German voters punished Chancellor Merkels conservatives, giving a thumbs-down to her open-door refugee policy and turning in droves to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). The result is a big setback for Merkel, who has led eurozone’s largest economy for a decade, and could narrow her room to manoeuvre as she tries to convince her EU partners to seal a deal with Turkey to stem the tide of migrants.
The political party of Merkel, the Christian Democrats (CDU), lost ground in all important states – Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the west and Saxony-Anhalt in the east – which were together widely seen as offering a verdict on Merkel’s liberal migrant policy. In conclusion, this contest was the biggest of Merkel’s third-term and the broadest electoral test before the next German federal ballot in 18 months.
If the main ballot get even worse, that this one, the future of the EU policy towards migrants and the whole economic foundation’s might be completely changed, influencing the financial markets. Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame after the last rally on Friday. The local top was established at the level of 1.1217 and the market slowly went lower to test the support at the level of 1.1079.
Currently, bulls are trying to re-gain the control in the market using the level of 1.1079 as a technical support to rally towards the level of 1.1217. Only a clear and sustained violation of the level of 1.0822 would change the current picture from bullish to bearish again.