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global macro overview March 22 2016| 101trading.co.uk

Global Macro Overview| March 22 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

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Macro Global View|22 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 22/03/2016:

 

The German Ifo Business Climate data was released this morning. A slight improvement can be noticed as the indicator was at the level of 106.7 points, beating expectations of 106.1 and prior reading of 105.7. Nevertheless, the next sentiment data in the form of ZEW Survey was worse than expected. The ZEW Current Situation indicator decreased to the level of 50.7 from 52.3 in the last month and was below the forecast of 53.0. The ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator declined to the level of 4.3 (5.9 expected), but was better than the last month’s figures of 1.0. In conclusion, the overall business and economic sentiment did not improve significantly despite the recent ECB actions, including expansion of the QE program. This is not a good sign and it should put more pressure on the euro. Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the 4h time frame. A bull run towards the recent swing high at the level of 1.1376 did not result in another higher high in this pair. Bears took control over the market as they had pushed the price below the important support at the level of 1.1218. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1066.

global macro overview March 22 2016| 101trading.co.uk

global macro overview March 22 2016| 101trading.co.uk

The UK inflation rate was unexpectedly unchanged in February, remaining far below the Bank of England’s 2 percent goal.

The Office for National Statistics revealed this morning that the consumer price index was at the level of 0.3% (vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior).

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at the level of 1.2 percent. In conclusion, the inflation level has been stubbornly low for the last two years, largely due to lower oil prices.

The BoE Governor Mark Carney reiterated last week that there are low chances that the interest rate will be cut or that it will enter the negative territory. Thus,the next move should result in a long-time rate increase.

global macro overview March 22 2016| 101trading.co.uk

global macro overview March 22 2016| 101trading.co.uk

Let’s now take a look at the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair at 4h time frame. After making a new local high at the level of 1.4515 the market has fallen toward the 50%Fibo at the level of 1.4290, breaking the support at the level of 1.4427 with ease. Currently, it looks like bears want to push the prices even further down, towards the 61%Fibo at the level of 1.4229. Any breakout below this level will result in an immediate test of the golden trend line.

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

 

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global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

Global Market Overview March 21 2016

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Macro Global View|21 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 21/03/2016: For this week there are still some important pieces of economic data that is due out, with a particular focus on the UK fundamental data release. This week should be quieter mainly because of the upcoming Easter Bank Holiday. Nevertheless, the inflation data on Tuesday and the retail sales figures on Thursday will be watched closely by the Bank of England mainly due to the 2% inflation projection level for 2016. In conclusion, the weak data might initiate the assistance program from the BoE, despite the recent remarks made by Mark Carney. He said that the next central bank move would be more likely to increase the interest rate than to decrease it. Let’s now take a look at the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair at the daily time frame. The market has broken through the golden trend line and currently it is testing it. Moreover, it is trading just below the important support at the level of 1.4438 so the bulls are in complete control overt this market. Only a sustained break out below the level of 1.4051 would change the situation in favor for bears.

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

In the USA, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 90.0 points in March, down 1.7 points from a month before. According to the report, this unexpected worsening in sentiment was caused by concerns of increasing petrol prices and mounting expenses. Moreover, another important fact is the employment situation and wages: the number of employed people is increasing steadily, but there is no chance for any increase in salaries and wages. In conclusion, the current situation is deteriorating compared to 2000 when the confidence index reached its all-time high at 112.

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the daily time frame. The bears seem to be in complete control over this market as the price is trading below the 21.50 and the 100 daily moving averages. Moreover, the price has recently broken below the important technical support at the level of 95.25 and currently the bears are testing this level from below. Any failure here would mean further price decrease towards the next support at the level of 94.05.

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sponsored by instaforex.com

 

GBP/USD currency trading recommendation 18 march 2016

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GBP/USD currency trading recommendation 18 march 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

march 18-GBP1|101trading.co.uk

march 18-GBP1|101trading.co.uk

On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4220 and 1.4360 again.

 

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

 

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4200), the next weekly demand level was located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009).

 

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

 

The price zone of 1.4235-1.4375 constitutes a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

This bearish rejection was manifested on the weekly chart until the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside.

 

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4375 allows further bullish advancement towards 1.4620 to take place.

march 18-GBP2 |101.trading.co.uk

march 18-GBP2 |101.trading.co.uk

 

A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4235.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4235 was expressed on the daily chart (GBP/USD looked oversold few weeks ago).

That is why; signs of bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards 1.4375.

On March 13, the broken demand zone (1.4235-1.4375) stood as a significant supply zone to offer bearish rejection in the short term.

A lack of bearish rejection around 1.4235 allowed further bullish advancement towards the level of 1.4375.

On March 14, evident signs of bearish rejection were expressed around 1.4375 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

That is why; a recent bearish movement was executed towards 1.4050 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

 

Today, the price level of 1.4375 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is being challenged again. Temporary bullish breakout is being manifested on the daily chart.

If bullish persistence above 1.4375 is maintained, a quick bullish movement towards 1.4530 and 1.4600 should be expected.

Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will remain trapped between price levels of 1.4375 and 1.4150.

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex| 101trading.co.uk

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex.com| 101trading.co.uk

InstaForex

global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

Macro Global View|18 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

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Macro Global View|18 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 18/03/2016: Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate on hold at the level of 0.50%, together with unchanged asset purchase facility at the level of 375B pounds.

 

The BoE members voted unanimously 9 to 0 in favor of unchanged interest rates. It was the second month in a row when policy makers were unequivocal on the decision, after Ian McCafferty abandoned his rate hike vote in February referring to a weaker outlook for wages. Moreover, according to the

 

Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes, despite the global headwinds, policy members are still convinced that in the near future interest rates should be increased, not decreased, so negative interest rates are not taken into account currently. There is one more thing worth of noting here: uncertainty over the outcome may result in slowing the economy during months ahead of the vote, the BoE policy members said. In conclusion,

 

The BoE meeting minutes mark the first time when officials have explicitly expressed their concerns over looming referendum risks acting as a further drag on growth amid already challenging global environment. Let us now take a look at the daily time frame of the GBP/USD pair.

 

The market has clearly broken out above the golden trend line and now is trying to extend the bullish momentum even further by testing the recent swing high at the level of 1.4668. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.4578 and the next support is seen at the level of 1.4438.

Global macro overview for 18/03/2016 Part two:

Despite the expanded stimulus program from the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates on hold at the level of -0.75%, together with 3-Month Libor lower and upper target ranges at the levels of -1,25% and -0,25%, respectively.

This decision might have very negative consequences because the ECB “bazooka program” launched this Wednesday may eventually put the Swiss currency under upward pressure versus the euro.

In conclusion, the extended period of negative interest rates might weaken the demand for the franc by making it less attractive for investors from overseas. Even if negative rates are also intended to support economic growth by encouraging banks to lend more to consumers and businesses, the recent extension of QE program from the ECB might be more damaging than helping the Swiss economy in the longer run.

Let us now take a look at the EUR/CHF daily time frame. We can see a steady rise of the market after the peg removal event over a year ago. Currently, it looks like the market will be continuing its slow uptrend towards the 1.2000 level as long as the golden trend line is not violated. The next resistance for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1048 and the next support is seen at the level of 1.0808.

global macro 18 march1 |101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march1 |101trading.co.uk

 

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

 

 

march18 eurousd2|101trading.co.uk

Trading Recommendation for EUR/USD | 18 March 2016

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Trading Recommendation for EUR/USD | 18 March 2016 |101trading.co.uk

march18 eurousd1|101trading.co.uk

march18 eurousd1|101trading.co.uk

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

 

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997. Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. April’s monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

 

December’s candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370. Previously, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the current bullish swing. On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

march18 eurousd2|101trading.co.uk

march18 eurousd2|101trading.co.uk

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated. During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

 

That is why a quick bullish movement took place towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart. On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone.

 

Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed. A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

 

Last week, a bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow further bullish movement to take place. More bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (currently being visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1350-1.1400 remains a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

 

Trading Recommendation: A valid SELL entry can be offered around the current supply zone of 1.1350-1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex| 101trading.co.uk

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex.com| 101trading.co.uk

 

 

EUR/USD |101trading.co.uk

Global Macro Overview |14 March 2016| 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 14/03/2016:

In the regional elections taken place last Sunday the German voters punished Chancellor Merkels conservatives, giving a thumbs-down to her open-door refugee policy and turning in droves to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). The result is a big setback for Merkel, who has led eurozone’s largest economy for a decade, and could narrow her room to manoeuvre as she tries to convince her EU partners to seal a deal with Turkey to stem the tide of migrants.

The political party of Merkel, the Christian Democrats (CDU), lost ground in all important states – Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the west and Saxony-Anhalt in the east – which were together widely seen as offering a verdict on Merkel’s liberal migrant policy. In conclusion, this contest was the biggest of Merkel’s third-term and the broadest electoral test before the next German federal ballot in 18 months.

If the main ballot get even worse, that this one, the future of the EU policy towards migrants and the whole economic foundation’s might be completely changed, influencing the financial markets. Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame after the last rally on Friday. The local top was established at the level of 1.1217 and the market slowly went lower to test the support at the level of 1.1079.

Currently, bulls are trying to re-gain the control in the market using the level of 1.1079 as a technical support to rally towards the level of 1.1217. Only a clear and sustained violation of the level of 1.0822 would change the current picture from bullish to bearish again.

EUR/USD |101trading.co.uk

EUR/USD |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga|Analytical Expert |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga|Analytical Expert |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

GBP/USD 14-03-2016

Trading Recommendation for GBP/USD and technical levels| 14 March 2016

GBP/USD 14-03-16

GBP/USD 14-03-16

On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of a bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4220 and 1.4360 again. Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4200), the next weekly demand level was located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009). As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.4222-1.4360 now constitutes a significant supply zone to be watched for a possible short-term bearish rejection. Otherwise, bullish persistence above the zone of 1.4222-1.4360 allows further bullish advancement towards 1.4620 to take place in the market.

GBP/USD 14-03-2016

GBP/USD 14-03-2016

A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4235. Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4235 was expressed on the daily chart (the GBP/USD looked oversold few weeks ago).

That is why, signs of bullish recovery and a possible long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing is currently being expressed towards 1.4375. The broken demand zone (1.4235-1.4375) now constitutes a significant supply zone to offer bearish rejection in the short-term perspective.

Early signs of a bearish rejection were expressed around 1.4235 (50% Fibonacci level depicted on the daily chart). However, the recent bearish signs were not strong enough. Hence, more bullish advancement towards 1.4375 was expressed as expected. Trading Recommendations:

Price actions should be watched around the level of 1.4375 for an intraday sell entry. S/L should be placed above 1.4420. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4220, 1.4100, and 1.4050. On the other hand, risky traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the key-level of 1.4030 to buy the GBP/USD pair.

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex| 101trading.co.uk

Michael Becker | Analytical Expert of Instaforex| 101trading.co.uk